Uncertainty is a part of life, and with uncertainty comes risk. Since uncertainty is ever present and something we cannot remove, we need to establish a policy for risk management.

Firstly we need to understand what risk really means and this investigation starts with its two aspects. The probability of an unforeseen event happening and the impact that event has. Both of these aspects must be weighed up to effectively assess risk.

In a combat situation one obviously does not have much time to analyse a risk, so it pays to become familiar with the process of dealing with risk.

When one considers some common risks we can see a correlation between the amount we risk, and the probability of it happening. Then tendency is that by risking more, the probability of that risk occurring is reduced.

Take the lottery for example. Buying a large number of tickets and placing a great deal of money at risk increases your chance of winning the lottery and hence cancelling that risk. Others who have noticed this phenomenon has quoted as such...

“And the trouble is,
if you don't risk anything,
you risk even more”
(Erica Jong - America writer and feminist)

In aikido, if we attempt to perform techniques timidly by entering shallowly or by giving our attacker a wide berth we seemingly lack little, but in fact increase the chance of getting hit. We also make it more difficult to perform our technique, and risk a secondary attack from our opponent.

If techniques are performed such that we enter deeply with full commitment, we risk being struck by the full impact of an attack, but in practice our movements are harder to follow and it becomes easier to perform a technique.

I urge you to become familiar with risk and the management of it. It is something you will find useful not only in aikido but in all facets of life.